Uncertainty Continues

Equity markets in the US finished higher over the week as the Middle East conflict continued to dominate headlines. President Trump addressed the nation on Wednesday, insisting that the US would achieve its goals for the war “very shortly”, but vowing to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the coming weeks. On the macro front, JOLTS data showed that US job openings fell more than expected in February, with hiring dropping to the lowest level in almost six years. Nonfarm payrolls data showed that the US economy added 178,000 jobs in March, surpassing the 60,000 consensus forecast.

In the Eurozone, a preliminary estimate showed that inflation increased to 2.5% in March, driven higher by soaring energy prices. In the UK, Q4 Gross Domestic Product growth was confirmed at 0.1%. In China, the manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) survey showed that factory activity returned to growth in March. Finally, in Japan, core consumer prices rose 1.7% year-on-year during March, the smallest rise in two years.

Last week's highlights

	February JOLTS (31/03) - Fell more than expected in February, hiring dropped to the lowest ​level in nearly six years.  Retail Sales (01/04) – Up 0.6% in Feb as motor vehicle purchases rebounded. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment (03/04) – 178k jobs added in March
	Eurozone March Inflation Preliminary Estimate (31/03) - Increased to 2.5% in March, pushed higher by soaring energy prices.
	Q4 Gross Domestic Product Final Estimate (31/03) – Confirmed at 0.1% in Q4.
	China Manufacturing PMI (31/03) – Rose to 50.4, beating expectations and entering expansion territory.  Tokyo Inflation (31/03) – Core consumer prices rose 1.7% YoY in March, the smallest rise in 2 years.

This week, investors in the US will receive two key inflation figures – CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), alongside minutes from the latest FOMC meeting and the ISM services PMI. In Europe, the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI is due out on Tuesday. In the UK, investors await the release of the S&P Global composite PMI. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of India and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are both due to meet on Wednesday. Inflation data will be released in China and Brazil on Friday.

What's on the radar

	ISM Services PMI (06/04) FOMC Meeting Minutes (08/04) Core PCE Price Index (09/04) US CPI (10/04)
	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (07/04)
	S&P Global Composite PMI (07/04) UK Halifax House Price Index (08/04)
	Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (08/04) Reserve Bank of India Meeting (08/04) China CPI (10/04)

Chart of the moment - Fuelling discontent

Source:  Bloomberg as of 01/04/2026. The Morning Consult Daily Consumer Sentiment Indicator is a real‑time daily measure of consumers’ views on their personal finances and overall business conditions. The chart shows this data as a 5-day moving average.

• US consumer sentiment has fallen off sharply amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. 
• Rising fuel prices, a stock market selloff, and muted job growth have all contributed to consumer concerns. 
• The Trump Administration will be acutely aware of the impact the war could have on midterm elections in November, with prediction markets now favouring the Democrats to take both the House and the Senate.