Skip to main content
The Davy Digest

Oil concerns return

27 July, 2026

Beyond words goes here

Portrait of Paul Nicholson, smiling

Paul Nicholson

Head of Investment Strategy

Portrait of Stephen Grissing, smiling

Stephen Grissing

Investment Strategist

Portrait of Scott McElhinney, smiling

Scott McElhinney

Investment Strategist

US equities moved lower for the week as concerns about the potential returns on huge artificial intelligence investments and a sharp rise in oil prices weighed on investor sentiment. The oil move also contributed to higher Treasury yields and increased market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Over in Europe, the European Central Bank left rates unchanged as expected, following a hike in June, markets expect another hike in September. In the UK, inflation slowed to 2.6% in June, the lowest since March 2025, a boost to new Prime Minister Andy Burnham as he attempts to tackle cost of living issues.

This week, investors will be paying attention to several central bank meetings and mega cap earnings. The Federal Reserve will meet and are expected to leave rates unchanged as June’s inflation data came in well below forecasts, and labour market figures were softer than anticipated. The Bank of England will also meet with markets expecting no change in rates. Finally, the Bank of Japan will meet and are expected to hold rates steady. On the earnings side, Microsoft, Meta, Apple & Amazon are among the names reporting. 

Chart of the moment - On the Warsh path?

The solid lines show the historic path of interest rates while the dashed lines represent market expectations for the future path of central bank policy rates.

 

Source: Bloomberg as of 27/07/2026. Note: The dashed line represents market expectations for the future path of central bank policy rates.

  • Markets are now expecting interest rate hikes in the US, Eurozone & UK before year end. 
  • The Federal Reserve appears committed to delivering price stability. If inflation peaks in the near-term and moves lower, this hawkish narrative will be difficult to maintain, however.
  • The European Central Bank held rates steady last week after hiking in June while the Federal Reserve & Bank of England are expected to leave rates unchanged this week.

Warning: Davy Select is designed for investors who are comfortable making their own investment decisions, without financial advice; this is known as “execution-only”. Execution-Only is not for everyone. You should ensure that you fully understand any investment and the associated risks before making a decision to invest. Alternatively, Davy can arrange for you to open a different type of account, where we can advise you in relation to investment decisions, or where we can manage investments on your behalf.

This website does not constitute investment advice as it does not take into account the investment objectives, knowledge and experience or financial situation of any particular person or persons. Prospective investors are advised to make their own assessment of the information contained herein and obtain professional advice suitable to their own individual circumstances.
 

Warning: The information in this article is not a recommendation or investment research. It does not purport to be financial advice and does not take into account the investment objectives, knowledge and experience or financial situation of any particular person. There is no guarantee that by putting a financial or investment plan in place, you will meet your objectives. You should speak to your adviser, in the context of your own personal circumstances, prior to making any financial or investment decision. 

Warning: Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your investment may go down as well as up.