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The Davy Digest

Inflation under the spotlight

20 July, 2026

Beyond words goes here

Portrait of Paul Nicholson, smiling

Paul Nicholson

Head of Investment Strategy

Portrait of Stephen Grissing, smiling

Stephen Grissing

Investment Strategist

Portrait of Scott McElhinney, smiling

Scott McElhinney

Investment Strategist

Financial markets remain resilient despite a sharp escalation in the Middle East. Equity markets are treating this as an energy shock, which will have limited deterioration for global growth potential going forward.

Soft inflation prints last week came from a period before the recent spike in energy, leaving policy makers reluctant to declare the fight over inflation is over. Again, chipmakers came under pressure as some question whether the buildout of artificial intelligence have run too far to justify their elevated valuations.

Looking ahead to this week, markets will focus on a heavy earnings week in the US, as the week will be light on macro data points. 18% of S&P market cap will report earnings this week, with focus on Hyperscaler capex numbers (GOOG/GOOL, TSLA on Wednesday) as well as broader industrials/defense names (LMT, RTX, HON, UNP on Thursday). Little in terms of US macro data, while FOMC enters blackout Saturday ahead of the 29th July rate decision. We will be watching ECB decision expecting no move, as well as Burnham’s installation as UK PM on Monday.

Chart of the moment - Hitting the brakes?

The chart shows the MSCI World Index in Euro terms, and the MSCI World Momentum index in Euro terms.

 

Source: Bloomberg as of 20/07/2026.

The chart shows the MSCI World Index in Euro terms, and the MSCI World Momentum index in Euro terms. 

  • Momentum stocks are now down 33% from the highs, and up only 12.5% YTD. This is after reaching heights of over 60% less than a month ago. 
  • Bulls will hope to see the congestion clear: pointing to the magnitude of the move relative to history on both absolute and volatility adjusted basis; positioning will be cleaner now, after margin calls; and an absence of a clear fundamental catalyst.
  • Risks remain however, as the AI capex outlook will clearly weigh on the complex. As the earnings season kicks off, any capex disappointments or if the AI narrative deteriorates more structurally, will leave the door open for some further downside.

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Warning: The information in this article is not a recommendation or investment research. It does not purport to be financial advice and does not take into account the investment objectives, knowledge and experience or financial situation of any particular person. There is no guarantee that by putting a financial or investment plan in place, you will meet your objectives. You should speak to your adviser, in the context of your own personal circumstances, prior to making any financial or investment decision. 

Warning: Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your investment may go down as well as up.