Inflation data in focus

Global equities edged higher for the week despite renewed tensions between the US and Iran. Oil prices moved significantly higher after the US military launched a series of new strikes against Iran. On the macro front, the S&P Global services PMI came in at 51.2 in June, just below the forecast of 51.3. Minutes from the latest Fed meeting were released, showing that Fed officials were split on the future of interest rates at the June meeting, with policymakers offering competing cases for hikes or cuts. 

Over in Europe, German CPI eased to 2.3% in June. In the UK, the Halifax house price index showed that UK house prices increased by 0.2% in June, following a 0.2% dip in May. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates for the first time in three years to tackle persistent inflation. Finally, Chinese inflation came in at 1% year-on-year, slightly below the 1.1% forecast. 

Last week's highlights

	S&P Global Services PMI (06/07) – Came in at 51.2 in June, just below the forecast of 51.3.  FOMC Minutes (08/07) – Fed officials were split on the future of interest rates, with policymakers offering competing cases for hikes or cuts.
	German CPI - June (10/07) – Eased to 2.3% in June.
	UK Halifax House Price Index (07/07) - UK house prices increased by 0.2% in June, following a 0.2% dip in May.
	Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (08/07) – Hiked rates for the first time in three years to tackle persistent inflation.  China CPI - June (09/07) – Came in at 1% year-on-year, slightly below 1.1% forecast.

Looking ahead to this week, markets will focus on key inflation data, including US CPI and PPI, alongside Eurozone and Indian inflation releases. US inflation expectations have eased recently, helped by lower energy prices and increased confidence in the Fed’s ability to keep inflation under control. Investors will also receive GDP reports from the UK and China, while the Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting.

What's on the radar

	US CPI (14/07) US PPI - June (15/07) US Retail Sales (16/07)
	Eurozone CPI (17/07)
	UK GDP - May (16/07)
	India CPI (13/07) China Q2 GDP (15/07) Bank of Canada Meeting (15/07)

Chart of the moment - (Semi) conductors of the market

Source: Bloomberg as of 30/06/2026.

The chart shows the S&P 500 Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry group as a percentage of the S&P 500. 

• Semiconductors have become the dominant driver of US equity markets this year, supported by AI enthusiasm and relentless demand for hardware.
• The sector has surged year to date, with earnings growth accounting for most of the move rather than higher valuations.
• While AI is transforming the industry, semiconductor earnings remain cyclical and will require continued demand growth to support current expectations.