AIB’s refreshed targets are very much in line with expectations, with greater clarity around additional distributions and normalising capital to target levels in the coming years a welcome supplement. With the exception of the CET 1 target, we will leave our forecasts unchanged – noting our higher income expectations. On our 2024 forecasts, AIB trades at 6.5x earnings and 0.7x price to book. One of the main catalysts from here is additional distributions – which we do not believe reflect the increases in earnings, returns and distributions in the coming years.
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