Market comment - Irish GDP growth likely to have stayed in positive territory in Q3

Davy Research
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Irish GDP data for Q3, to be published this morning, are likely to show another expansion despite a contraction in construction output and falling retail sales. Recent PMI surveys point to a slowdown in Q4, with consumer spending likely to contract as the energy price hikes and close to double-digit CPI inflation hit households’ real incomes. That said, our forecasts for 3.5% GDP growth in 2023 already include a slowdown in export growth to just 7%, its slowest pace since 2016, with consumer spending up just 1.8%.