Greencore Group - 2022 results in line; cautious outlook on 2023

Davy Research
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Headline results were pre-announced on October 11th, so there were no surprises on the print. Revenue and profit recovery were robust, reflecting the easing of mobility restrictions and volume rebuild in Food-to-Go, though margin recovery has lagged due to the impact of inflation and margin dilutive incremental capacity. The 2023 outlook strikes a cautious tone noting: (1) while revenues are ‘broadly holding up’ there are negative mix effects, (2) Greencore remains cautious on the impact of recessionary forces on consumer spending and (3) FY 2023 will be a year of further substantial inflation, with Greencore ‘continuing to assess contracts that are no longer economic’. Noting the absence of guidance, we see downside risk to our FY 2023 operating profit.