Markets are pricing in only a 20% probability that the Fed will this evening act more aggressively than the consensus for a 75bps hike to a 3.0-3.25% range for the Fed funds rate. The publication of the ‘dot-plot’ showing the FOMC’s expectations for interest rates out to 2025 will be closely watched given that the market expects rates to peak at 4.5% in early 2023. Similarly, the Fed’s new projections for GDP growth and inflation will be scrutinised, especially in light of last week’s release showing core CPI inflation rising to 6.3%.
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