Origin Enterprises - Controlling the controllables; cash flow the stand-out

Davy Research
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Key takeaways from the interim results include: (1) impressive cash generation, prompting resumption of the dividend payment; (2) operating profit improvement following more normalised trading conditions; and (3) the persistence of FX and weather factors. On first look, we will lower our FY 2021 EPS by c.7-8% – reflecting these externalities – while keeping our FY 2022 forecasts unchanged. We note the structural improvement in the group’s working capital profile continues to support cash generation and underpins our free cash flow forecasts (10.7% free cash yield).