Market comment - Export sector continues to hold up Irish GDP growth

Davy Research
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Friday’s trade data showed that Irish export performance, driven by the multinational sector, will make a strong positive contribution to GDP growth in Q4 2020 and likely through 2021. However, high frequency data show that fresh lockdowns have had a deeper impact on activity in January amid speculation that restrictions will be extended beyond April. We will likely revise up our GDP forecasts for 2020 and 2021 (-1.7% and 3.8%) but with the recovery in indigenous sectors delayed, pushed into 2022.