The news that the October 13th Budget for 2021 will provide further fiscal support (focused on housing, health and the environment) is not a great surprise given we expect a deficit of just 6% of GDP in 2020, due to remarkably resilient tax revenues. The stimulus will likely be modest (circa 1% of GDP), using some of the flexibility from the smaller-than-expected deficit but still planning to reduce the deficit to 4.5-5.5% of GDP in 2020. Infrastructure spending will be protected. Also, the Budget will be predicated on a conservative ‘no-deal’ Brexit scenario.
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