A one-two combination of energy greening and COVID-19 has created the toughest conditions for the oil market in a very long time. There is a sense that it’s all over for the commodity. When short-term demand falls by 20-30%, these assumptions are easy to make. While we agree it is clearly a sunset industry with huge short-term demand issues, what is being missed is the scale of the supply side response to these very issues. Recent data indicate a sharp voluntary (and also forced) reduction in supply. The scale of this response is unusual and has the capacity to surprise markets towards the end of the year when demand picks up. So far, this is not fully reflected in pricing.
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