RBS - Q4 results: strong lending and capital; conservative ROTE outlook

Davy Research
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Q4 results for RBS – now rebranded as NatWest Group – reported underlying earnings ahead of expectations, supported by strong lending growth and better non-interest income. There was also a strong beat on capital, and the outlook for a refocussed Natwest Markets (NWM) will drive further capital efficiency. The outlook, however, is cautious, acknowledging 2020 income challenges, and sets a medium to long term ROTE target of 9-11%. The target will do little to re-rate valuation versus the prior 2020 target of 12%+ and consensus expectations for 9% in 2022.