UK economy - Revising down our UK GDP growth forecasts

Davy Research
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We have revised down our UK GDP growth forecast to 1.0% in 2019. Brexit, tighter financial conditions and political uncertainties are now weighing on UK GDP growth. We expect a ‘soft patch’ in H1 2019 so that GDP growth slows to 0.1-0.2% per quarter. On Brexit, we expect the status quo to be maintained via a deal or an extension of Article 50. We forecast 1.4% GDP growth in 2020, with activity still held back by weak investment and productivity growth.